Market Update 3rd April – 9th April 2019
Welcome back to another Australian crypto market update.
What a difference a week makes. In our last newsletter we asked: ‘Is Bitcoin on the cusp of a major breakout?’ About an hour after the email hit inboxes, there was a 20% spike in the BTC price. There’s been plenty of speculation about the reasons behind the massive jump – some cite large short positions being liquidated, while others point to a good technical setup. We prefer to think of it as the price finally catching up with the fundamentals. The Lightning Network has begun to prove itself, regulations are improving, there’s money flowing in from funds and the institutional infrastructure is being refined. It all adds up to a pretty bullish picture from where we’re sitting.
BTC is up 27% over the past seven days to be sitting just under $7400 – the best price for more than 4 months. Some altcoins are doing even better – ETH booked a 27% rise, XRP is up 14%, BCH shot up 85% and LTC surged 47%. EOS is up 32% while our latest addition Stellar jumped 20%. The crypto ‘fear and greed’ index, hit 69 this week (with 100 representing ‘extreme greed’) and Bitcoin searches on Google trebled to return to levels last seen in November 2018.
Stellar added to Independent Reserve
Trading in our tenth currency, Stellar Lumens (XLM) kicks off on the exchange today. The currency was created by Jed McCaleb – one of the founders of Ripple – and it shares many of XRP’s characteristics. The main difference is the target market – rather than aiming at money transfers for banks, XLM hopes to be used for payments by everyday people. XLM is extremely fast and has low transaction costs.
Bitcoin enters new hyperbolic phase
The pundits are outdoing each other with Bitcoin price predictions. Veteran technical trader Peter Brandt, who accurately called the January 2018 price plunge, believes BTC is about “to enter a new parabolic phase” and will hit US$50,000.
Either from Dec ’18 low or from retest of same (circa analog dbl bottom in 2015) it would not surprise me if $BTC enters a new parabolic phase. $btcusd pic.twitter.com/XV89Qz7P4n— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 5, 2019
Price predictions coming thick and fast.
Facebook seeks $1 billion for its new cryptocurrency
New York Times (NYT) tech reporter Nathaniel Popper tweeted this week that Facebook is seeking a billion dollars from VCs to develop its new cryptocurrency. “Given that one of the big allures of blockchain projects is the decentralization, getting outside investors could help Facebook present the project as more decentralized and less controlled by Facebook,” Popper said.
AAP turns to IR for analysis
Last Tuesday’s 20% price spike saw AAP turn to Independent Reserve for comment. Chief executive Adrian Przelozny said that engineers and regulators have been working throughout the past year to make the space more secure and friendly to institutional investors. “While the price has been depressed, the fundamentals of cryptocurrency has never been stronger than it is right now,” he said. The story got a run throughout the country.
BTC price pump going into halving?
More than a few pundits have suggested Bitcoin’s upcoming block reward halving in May next year is the catalyst for the price spike. Halving the BTC reward that miners receive per block reduces the supply, which should theoretically make each BTC more valuable. Historically speaking, the halving starts getting priced in about a year in advance (that’s next month!).
LTC halving in August
To get some idea of the potential BTC pump in store, take a look at the Litecoin price action ahead of LTC’s upcoming block reward halving in August. It began the year around AU$42 and is now just over $125 – up 200%. That’s a nice little earner.
SEC releases guidance on token sales
In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission has clarified its guidelines around token sales and when cryptocurrencies fall under securities classification. The guidelines received a mixed response: some praised the SEC for new regulatory clarity while others suggested they went too far. Fortune was in the latter camp: “The upshot is the vast majority of tokens put up for sale will likely be considered securities, which means they must be registered with the SEC … a process that can be slow and expensive.”
Lightning Torch will soon sputter out
The Lightning Torch has been one of the more successful publicity efforts in recent memory, helping spark awareness on Twitter of the Lightning Network’s ability to facilitate low value BTC transactions. Over the past couple of months almost 300 people, from Binance’s CZ to Twitter’s Jack have passed on the torch. Its gone through 56 countries and 686 million satoshis so far and will wind up this week after hitting its transaction ceiling of US$170.
IR classified as a ‘trusted exchange’ on OpenMarketcap
IR is one of just 13 ‘trusted exchanges’ worldwide that OpenMarketCap relies on to provide accurate data. CoinMarketCap’s new competitor was set up in the wake of the Bitwise report that estimated 95% of crypto volume is fake. The Bitwise report identified ten trusted exchanges including Binance, Gemini and Kraken. This week, IR joined them, thanks to the votes of the OpenMarketCap trading community.
$3 Billion waiting to pump crypto further
Senior crypto market analyst with social trading platform eToro Mati Greenspan believes that at least $3 billion has been waiting on the sidelines in stablecoins like Tether and is set to be pumped back into Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins. With more than a few signs flashing green for the long awaited crypto market recovery, here’s hoping the momentum is sustained over the coming week.
这是多么不同的一周。上一期中，我们问到：“比特币价格正迎来一波暴涨吗？”就在简报出约一小时后，比特币价格猛涨20%。 许多人猜测这一波强劲涨势的原因——部分人归功于大量空头平仓，还有一部分人则认为是由于良好的技术设置。 我们更倾向于把它看作价格最终回归基本面。闪电网络的效果已得到验证，改善监管，增加资金能力，完善机构基础设施。 就目前看来，这一切构成一个相当乐观的前景 比特币价格在过去七天中上涨了27%，创4个多月以来的最高价 – 近$7400。部分代币的表现甚至更加出色 – 以太币价格上涨27%， 瑞波币价格上涨14%，比特现金上涨85%，莱特币上涨47%，柚子币上涨 32%，而新增的恒星币上涨了20%。“恐惧贪婪”指数本周达到69点 （100点代表“极度贪婪”），而比特币在谷歌的搜索次数则翻了三倍，恢复到2018年11月时的水平。
Independent Reserve Trading Desk